Match page
Public matchup breakdown
This page pulls the full stored matchup history, then layers on current-board timing and market context when it exists.
TT Elite Series
71 meetings · Last meeting Apr 30, 10:00 AM · Last total 68
Quick read
Over 74.5 has the cleaner read
Across 66 scored totals, this matchup is Over 74.5 58% and Under 74.5 42%. Recent results are 40% over and 60% under, with an average total of 78.3 and 82% of meetings reaching 4+ sets.
Set flow
Split & Sweep Analysis
45 loaded meetings out of 71 tracked.
Split means both players won at least one set. Sweep means a 3-0 finish.
Split rate
Both win 1+ set
80%
36/45
Sweep rate
3-0 finishes
20%
9/45
Set 1 win rate
Maciej Nowalinski26/45
Lukasz Jarocki19/45
When Maciej Nowalinski Wins S1
S2 Lukasz Jarocki (Split)
54%14/26
3-0 Maciej Nowalinski (Sweep)
23%6/26
ML Maciej Nowalinski
69%18/26
When Lukasz Jarocki Wins S1
S2 Maciej Nowalinski (Split)
42%8/19
3-0 Lukasz Jarocki (Sweep)
16%3/19
ML Lukasz Jarocki
84%16/19
Post-split ML
Maciej Nowalinski 42%15/36
|Lukasz Jarocki 58%21/36
Pressure
Match Spread
Using 45 loaded meetings out of 71 tracked.
Margin target
Any match result
Win by 7.5+ pts
Maciej Nowalinski
20%
9/45 meetings cleared the line
Lukasz Jarocki
29%
13/45 meetings cleared the line
Victory margin
Maciej Nowalinski
Average
7.5 pts
Median
6 pts
Lukasz Jarocki
Average
7.5 pts
Median
8 pts
Execution
Close-Out Analysis
Using 45 loaded meetings out of 71 tracked.
89 late-set close-out spots across the loaded meetings in view.
Maciej Nowalinski
30/43 total close-outs
70%
Up 2-0
100% 12/12
Up 2-1
75% 12/16
Tied 2-2
40% 6/15
Lukasz Jarocki
37/46 total close-outs
80%
Up 2-0
100% 11/11
Up 2-1
85% 17/20
Tied 2-2
60% 9/15
Set edge
Set Spread
Using 45 loaded meetings out of 71 tracked.
186 sets in scope
Set #
Maciej Nowalinski
-1.5
50% 93/186
-2.5
28% 52/186
-3.5
22% 41/186
-4.5
16% 29/186
Lukasz Jarocki
-1.5
50% 93/186
-2.5
33% 61/186
-3.5
26% 49/186
-4.5
16% 30/186
Actionable plays
The same match-read language as home, then the deeper tabs below
Set play
Attack S2 and keep S3 live
S1 losers answer in S2 at 54% when Maciej Nowalinski takes the opener and 42% when Lukasz Jarocki does. With 82% of meetings reaching 4+ sets, this plays more like an S2 / S3 match than a sweep script.
Match total
Over 74.5 is playable pre-match
Over hits 58% on the loaded sample with recent 40% and the line sitting 3.8 pts below the matchup average. Trend -18%.
Side / ML
Pass the side pre-match
Series, form, and late-match signals do not line up strongly enough on one player. Better handled live than forced before first serve.
Live trigger
If Maciej Nowalinski wins S1, look Lukasz Jarocki in S2
Lukasz Jarocki answers in set 2 54% of the time (14/26) when Maciej Nowalinski takes the opener. If the match splits 1-1, keep S3 markets live instead of anchoring to a sweep.
Form vs field
Recent form across all opponents
This is the fastest check for whether the matchup is lining up with broader player shape.
Recent record
Win rate
Avg total
Avg margin
Current streak
Over 74.5
Matchup read
Series pulse
This compresses the head-to-head sample into the few numbers that actually matter.
Series record
30% / 34% win rate
Maciej Nowalinski 21-24 Lukasz Jarocki
Current streak
Maciej Nowalinski 1
Recent 5 split
Maciej Nowalinski / Lukasz Jarocki
3-2
Sweep vs split
Sweep rate / split rate · 45-match loaded sample
20% / 80%
Match texture
4+ sets / overtime
82% / 58%
Risk profile
31% consistency
50 pt range
Avg win margin
Maciej Nowalinski / Lukasz Jarocki
7.5 / 7.5
Rolling windows
Last 5 / 10 / 20
This gives the same quick compression bettors look for when the full sample and the recent sample disagree.
Last 5
5 matches · avg 79.2 total · 60% 4+ sets
60% O / 40% U
Last 10
10 matches · avg 79.3 total · 70% 4+ sets
50% O / 50% U
Last 20
20 matches · avg 77.2 total · 80% 4+ sets
40% O / 60% U
Upcoming
Other scheduled matches for these players
Use this to see whether either player is about to reappear elsewhere on the slate.
No other current-board matches are scheduled for these players.
Recent logs
Last five for each player
Open this only when the summary looks close and you want to inspect the path each player took into the matchup.
OpenClose
Recent logs
Last five for each player
Open this only when the summary looks close and you want to inspect the path each player took into the matchup.
Maciej Nowalinski
L vs Krzysztof Wloczko
TT Elite Series · May 6, 2:25 PM
0
0 pts
W vs Marcin Balcerzak
TT Elite Series · May 6, 1:35 PM
0
0 pts
W vs Adrian Spychala
TT Elite Series · May 6, 11:30 AM
0
0 pts
L vs Lukasz Jarocki
TT Elite Series · May 6, 10:40 AM
0
0 pts
W vs Karol Wisniewski
TT Elite Series · May 6, 9:10 AM
0
0 pts
Lukasz Jarocki
W vs Artur Daniel
TT Elite Series · May 7, 2:25 PM
0
0 pts
L vs Jakub Kuzmicz
TT Elite Series · May 7, 1:35 PM
0
0 pts
W vs Adrian Spychala
TT Elite Series · May 7, 11:30 AM
0
0 pts
W vs Krzysztof Wloczko
TT Elite Series · May 7, 10:40 AM
0
0 pts
L vs Karol Strowski
TT Elite Series · May 7, 9:05 AM
0
0 pts