Match page
Public matchup breakdown
This page pulls the full stored matchup history, then layers on current-board timing and market context when it exists.
Quick read
Under 74.5 has the cleaner read
Across 41 scored totals, this matchup is Over 74.5 45% and Under 74.5 55%. Recent results are 50% over and 50% under, with an average total of 75.2 and 73% of meetings reaching 4+ sets.
Set flow
Split & Sweep Analysis
40 loaded meetings out of 51 tracked.
Split means both players won at least one set. Sweep means a 3-0 finish.
Split rate
Both win 1+ set
73%
29/40
Sweep rate
3-0 finishes
28%
11/40
Set 1 win rate
Serhii Kalenyk16/40
Nazar Kovalchuk24/40
When Serhii Kalenyk Wins S1
S2 Nazar Kovalchuk (Split)
75%12/16
3-0 Serhii Kalenyk (Sweep)
13%2/16
ML Serhii Kalenyk
69%11/16
When Nazar Kovalchuk Wins S1
S2 Serhii Kalenyk (Split)
54%13/24
3-0 Nazar Kovalchuk (Sweep)
38%9/24
ML Nazar Kovalchuk
67%16/24
Post-split ML
Serhii Kalenyk 59%17/29
|Nazar Kovalchuk 41%12/29
Pressure
Match Spread
Using 40 loaded meetings out of 51 tracked.
Margin target
Any match result
Win by 7.5+ pts
Serhii Kalenyk
18%
7/40 meetings cleared the line
Nazar Kovalchuk
38%
15/40 meetings cleared the line
Victory margin
Serhii Kalenyk
Average
6.7 pts
Median
7 pts
Nazar Kovalchuk
Average
8 pts
Median
9 pts
Execution
Close-Out Analysis
Using 40 loaded meetings out of 51 tracked.
66 late-set close-out spots across the loaded meetings in view.
Serhii Kalenyk
24/33 total close-outs
73%
Up 2-0
100% 4/4
Up 2-1
83% 15/18
Tied 2-2
45% 5/11
Nazar Kovalchuk
26/33 total close-outs
79%
Up 2-0
100% 11/11
Up 2-1
82% 9/11
Tied 2-2
55% 6/11
Set edge
Set Spread
Using 40 loaded meetings out of 51 tracked.
160 sets in scope
Set #
Serhii Kalenyk
-1.5
47% 75/160
-2.5
29% 46/160
-3.5
23% 37/160
-4.5
14% 22/160
Nazar Kovalchuk
-1.5
53% 85/160
-2.5
33% 53/160
-3.5
23% 36/160
-4.5
17% 27/160
Actionable plays
The same match-read language as home, then the deeper tabs below
Set play
Attack S2 and keep S3 live
S1 losers answer in S2 at 75% when Serhii Kalenyk takes the opener and 54% when Nazar Kovalchuk does. With 73% of meetings reaching 4+ sets, this plays more like an S2 / S3 match than a sweep script.
Match total
Small under lean, not a must-play
Under leads 55% on Robust sample, but the gap is still narrow enough that live pace matters more than the raw board number.
Side / ML
Pass the side pre-match
Series, form, and late-match signals do not line up strongly enough on one player. Better handled live than forced before first serve.
Live trigger
If Serhii Kalenyk wins S1, look Nazar Kovalchuk in S2
Nazar Kovalchuk answers in set 2 75% of the time (12/16) when Serhii Kalenyk takes the opener. If the match splits 1-1, keep S3 markets live instead of anchoring to a sweep.
Form vs field
Recent form across all opponents
This is the fastest check for whether the matchup is lining up with broader player shape.
Recent record
Win rate
Avg total
Avg margin
Current streak
Over 74.5
Matchup read
Series pulse
This compresses the head-to-head sample into the few numbers that actually matter.
Series record
37% / 41% win rate
Serhii Kalenyk 19-21 Nazar Kovalchuk
Current streak
Serhii Kalenyk 1
Recent 5 split
Serhii Kalenyk / Nazar Kovalchuk
3-2
Sweep vs split
Sweep rate / split rate · 40-match loaded sample
28% / 73%
Match texture
4+ sets / overtime
73% / 50%
Risk profile
35% consistency
54 pt range
Avg win margin
Serhii Kalenyk / Nazar Kovalchuk
6.7 / 8
Rolling windows
Last 5 / 10 / 20
This gives the same quick compression bettors look for when the full sample and the recent sample disagree.
Last 5
5 matches · avg 82.8 total · 80% 4+ sets
80% O / 20% U
Last 10
10 matches · avg 77.3 total · 70% 4+ sets
50% O / 50% U
Last 20
20 matches · avg 77.7 total · 75% 4+ sets
50% O / 50% U
Upcoming
Other scheduled matches for these players
Use this to see whether either player is about to reappear elsewhere on the slate.
Recent logs
Last five for each player
Open this only when the summary looks close and you want to inspect the path each player took into the matchup.
OpenClose
Recent logs
Last five for each player
Open this only when the summary looks close and you want to inspect the path each player took into the matchup.
Serhii Kalenyk
W vs Oleh Napirko
Setka Cup · Jun 24, 2:45 AM
0
0 pts
L vs Nazar Kovalchuk
Setka Cup · Jun 24, 1:45 AM
0
0 pts
L vs Valerii Vlasenko
Setka Cup · Jun 24, 12:15 AM
0
0 pts
L vs Mykyta Smyrnov
Setka Cup · Jun 23, 10:15 PM
0
0 pts
L vs Mykyta Smyrnov
Setka Cup · Jun 23, 3:15 AM
0
0 pts
Nazar Kovalchuk
W vs Orest Hura
Setka Cup · Jun 25, 2:45 AM
0
0 pts
W vs Ruslan Lazebny
Setka Cup · Jun 25, 1:45 AM
0
0 pts
W vs Valerii Vlasenko
Setka Cup · Jun 25, 12:15 AM
0
0 pts
L vs Mykyta Smyrnov
Setka Cup · Jun 24, 10:15 PM
0
0 pts
W vs Serhii Berezynskyi
Setka Cup · Jun 24, 8:15 PM
0
0 pts